The US stock market closed with mixed gains and losses. The three major stock indices have accumulated gains this week
Core PCE in the United States increased by 2.9% year-on-year in December last year, reaching a three-year low
Intel's stock price plummeted by nearly 12%, marking the largest daily decline since July 2020
WTI oil prices have accumulated a 6.3% increase this week
As the market weighed inflation data, US stocks closed on Friday with mixed gains and losses. Although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed slightly lower, ending their six consecutive positive days, both achieved weekly gains. As of the close of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 60.30 points, or 0.16%, to close at 38109.43 points; The Nasdaq fell 55.13 points, or 0.36%, to close at 15455.36 points; The S&P 500 index fell 3.19 points, or 0.07%, to close at 4890.97 points.
Mainly boosted by economic data, the three major stock indexes closed higher this week, with the Dow Jones Index up 0.7%, the Nasdaq up 0.9%, and the S&P 500 index up 1%.
It is worth noting that this Friday is also the first day of the last four trading days of January. According to Bespoke Investment Group data, when the S&P 500 index enters the last four trading days, if it has previously shown an upward trend, historically, it usually ends the month's trading with an upward trend. According to data from 1953 to 2023, when the S&P 500 index rises by more than 2% in the last four trading days, there is a 66.7% probability that it will close higher. As of Thursday this week, the S&P 500 index has closed at a historic high for five consecutive trading days, marking the longest consecutive record high since November 2021. The S&P 500 index has risen by a cumulative 2.7% this month.
In terms of the bond market, as investors weigh inflation data, the 10-year US Treasury yield has flattened and hovered around 4.14%, while the two-year US Treasury yield has risen by 4 basis points to 4.357%.
US core PCE increased by 2.9% year-on-year in December last year
In terms of economic data, the latest data released by the US Department of Commerce shows that after excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index in the US increased by 2.9% year-on-year in December last year, the lowest level in nearly three years, with a previous value of 3.2% and a market expectation of 3%; A month on month growth of 0.2%, with a previous value of 0.1%, and market expectations of 0.2%. Including volatile food and energy prices, the PCE price index in the United States increased by 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month on month in December last year. In addition, personal income and expenditure increased by 0.3% and 0.7% month on month in December last year, respectively; The personal savings rate has dropped to 3.7%, from the previous value of 4.1%.
According to the CME Federal Reserve observation tool, the current market expectation is that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 46.2%, and the probability of holding steady is 52.6%. Rhys Williams, Chief Strategist at Spotting Rock Asset Management, stated that all economic data, including GDP and PCE, performed well this week, indicating slight economic weakness but still optimism.
The Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting from January 30th to 31st, and the market expects a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will remain silent.
According to data from the National Association of Real Estate Agents (NAR) in the United States, due to lower mortgage interest rates attracting buyers to return to the market, sales of unsold homes in the United States unexpectedly increased by 8.3% in December, far exceeding market expectations of 2%. The index increased by 1.3% year-on-year, while the previous value decreased by 5.2%. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said that the real estate market has started well this year, benefiting from declining mortgage rates and stable housing prices. According to data from Freddie Mac, as of Thursday, the 30-year mortgage interest rate was 6.69%, lower than the peak of 7.79% at the end of October.
Intel's stock price plummeted by nearly 12%
On the company side, due to bearish expectations, Intel's stock price plummeted by 11.91% to close at $43.65 per share, the largest daily decline since July 2020. In its earlier financial report, Intel's earnings per share and revenue for the fourth quarter exceeded expectations. However, the company also stated that it expects an adjusted earnings per share of 13 cents for the current quarter, with sales ranging from 12.2 billion to 13.2 billion US dollars, far below market expectations. Analysts lowered their profit expectations for Intel from Q2 to Q4 on Friday. Intel CEO Patrick Gelsinger said that due to Mobileye's weak performance, it will put pressure on Intel's sales performance in the first quarter. Meanwhile, he stated that the company's core business, namely computer and server chips, remains strong; Quota; Health; Quota;, Sales will be at the low end of the seasonal range.
Tesla's stock price rose 0.34%, but this week it fell nearly 14% due to negative financial reports, marking the largest weekly decline since October last year. Since early January, Tesla's stock price has fallen by over 26%, possibly recording its worst monthly performance since December 2022.
AMC Entertainment's stock price fell 0.3% on Friday to $4.07 per share, hitting a new historical low. The company's stock price has fallen by nearly 10% this week. Earlier this week, the CEO of the company, Adam Aron, stated that the impact of the pandemic on the cinema industry is still ongoing.
WTI oil prices have accumulated a 6.3% increase this week
In the commodity market, WTI crude oil futures for March delivery rose 0.84% to close at $78.01 per barrel. The Brent oil price for delivery in March rose 1.36% to close at $83.55 per barrel. WTI oil prices have risen a cumulative 6.5% this week, the largest weekly increase since September 1st. Brent oil prices have risen by a cumulative 6.4%, the largest weekly increase since October 13th.