On January 12th local time, Microsoft Inc. closed at $388.47, a 1% increase, surpassing Apple Inc. with a market value of $2.89 trillion, once again becoming the world's highest company by market value. Apple closed 0.18% higher at $185.92, with a closing market value of $2.87 trillion.
According to CCTV News on January 13th, it was reported that Microsoft's return to the top spot in market value is due to its success in the field of artificial intelligence. And Apple is facing a series of problems such as a decline in market share.
Since New Year's Day this year, Apple's stock price has fallen by a cumulative 4%, while Microsoft has risen by a cumulative 2%. In addition, Microsoft, which was hit hard by the GPT model last year, has seen a cumulative increase of 63% throughout the year.
According to Red Star News, as two well-established tech giants, although their competitive fields do not completely overlap, the struggle for the top spot in the US stock market has never stopped. According to market data compiled by Dow Jones, since February 2019, the title of "King of American Stocks" has belonged to either Apple or Microsoft. Amazon, which had briefly peaked in the US stock market before, experienced a significant decline in valuation, and its current market value has been approached by the rising star Nvidia. Through the unremitting efforts of CEO Nadella, Microsoft has transformed from an early company that relied on computer hardware sales to a giant that relies on software businesses such as generative AI and cloud computing.
Benefiting from its leading advantage in the AI track, Microsoft's revenue is expected to reach approximately $61 billion in the most recent quarter ending at the end of December last year, an increase of approximately 16% compared to the same period last year. Hancock, the head of stock business at the US wealth management fund GMO, believes that "Microsoft's success lies in its integration into the IT departments of all companies around the world. If you want to establish an IT department, you will definitely use Microsoft's business.".
In contrast, Apple still heavily relies on the hardware sales of iPhone products, and in important markets such as China, the market share of iPhones continues to decline, causing market participants to worry that Apple no longer has a nearly monopolistic advantage like in its heyday. According to a report provided to clients by consulting firm Jeffrey this week, iPhone sales in the Chinese mainland market decreased by 30% in the first week of 2024, reflecting the pressure that Huawei and other competitors have put on Apple.
Apple's Vision Pro headset will be available for sale in the United States on February 2nd, priced at $3499. This product is considered a revolutionary change within Apple that is comparable to the iPhone. However, a report released by UBS on January 7th estimated that the sales of Vision Pro contributed "relatively negligible" to Apple's earnings per share in 2024.
This Friday, Apple's "Prophecy Emperor" and Tianfeng International analyst Guo Minggui posted that the Vision Pro has only 60-80000 units in stock. Considering the novelty of the product and the loyalty of Apple fans, he believes that the Vision Pro can easily sell out after it goes on sale.
However, Guo Minggui also pointed out that Vision Pro only showcased technology last year, but did not specify more important product positioning and key applications. If Vision Pro cannot be sold out instantly, it will be lower than expected, affecting Apple and the stock price of the industry chain.
Guo Minggui also emphasized that due to the lack of information on the subsequent Vision series products, they cannot be the main trading topic at present. The market response of Vision Pro is the key observation point of Apple's industry chain this year.
According to media reports, another institution has issued a warning for Apple's stock price due to the prospects of the iPhone. Previously, Apple was downgraded by Wall Street agencies. On January 4th local time, Harsh Kumar, an analyst at investment bank Piper Sandler, downgraded Apple's rating citing concerns about insufficient demand for iPhones.
On Friday, January 12th Eastern Time, investment research firm Hedgeye announced that it has listed Apple as its latest short selling target. Hedgeye predicts that Apple's revenue growth will be lackluster until 2025, as iPhone sales are weak, innovation is lacking, and Microsoft's artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities intensify competition in the personal computer (PC) market.
Hedgeye also predicts that Apple's stock price will fall by 30% from its current level.
After the announcement of Hedgeye's forecast, Apple's stock price, which had risen 0.6% at the beginning of the trading day, fell again in the afternoon, then rebounded slightly, and finally closed up 0.18%, with a cumulative increase of 2.6% this week.
Previously, Barclays also downgraded Apple's stock rating from "neutral" to "underweight" and lowered its target price to $160. Barclays predicts that Apple may fall more than 15% in 2024.
Barclays Bank analyst Tim Long believes that the poor sales of iPhone 15 will continue; Although the iPhone 16 has not been released yet, it is expected that there will be no major upgrades that will stimulate consumers to upgrade and upgrade. Barclays Bank also pointed out that the decline in consumer electronics may continue for a long time, which is a huge challenge for Apple.