Apple is about to usher in a "new era" - the era of spatial computing - with its head display product, the Vison Pro.
"Every once in a while, a revolutionary product appears," Steve Jobs used this as his opening statement at the first iPhone launch event in 2007. At the 2023 World Developers Conference (WWDC), Steve Jobs' successor, Apple CEO Tim Cook, finally coined the term "revolutionary product" once again.
According to Apple's official website, the Apple Vision Pro will be launched in the United States on February 2nd and will begin pre ordering on January 19th. Previously, in the early morning of June 6, 2023, at Apple's WWDC23 event, Cook stated, "Vision Pro represents the beginning of a new journey."
According to Apple's official website, the Apple Vision Pro, a hybrid reality (MR) headset, is priced at $3499 (approximately RMB 25000) and includes both virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR), allowing consumers to immerse themselves in a high-definition virtual world.
Apple leads the "new era" and brings industry chain opportunities
"Just like Mac takes us into the era of personal computing, iPhone takes us into the era of mobile computing, and Apple Vision Pro takes us into the era of spatial computing," Cook said.
For Apple, the development of Vision Pro took over 7 years. According to Cook, Vision Pro has pioneered a new type of computing device that can integrate digital content into the real world and achieve augmented reality. This is the first Apple product that is "invisible but transparent".
Screenshot of Apple's 2023 Global Developers Conference, source: Apple website
When using Vision Pro, users can use various applications in a completely new way, including videos, games, and more. Cook said, "You can watch, listen to digital content, and interact with it, just like they exist in the real world."
It is reported that Vision Pro can significantly improve the effectiveness of online conference communication. In the scenario of online meetings, users can have face-to-face conversations with multiple people, and can also place apps in other locations within the three-dimensional space to achieve parallel operations. Attendees can watch the materials presented during the meeting and have face-to-face discussions with colleagues, achieving a similar effect to an offline meeting. Some argue that Vision Pro is expected to lead the next generation of productivity tools.
According to sources, the initial production target for Apple's Vision Pro is around 400000 units, with a full year target of 1 million units in 2024, and plans to increase sales to 10 million units in the third year.
At present, the XR head display (including AR, VR, MR) industry is still in a state of fierce competition, and the arrival of Apple may accelerate the development process of the industry.
According to a report released by market research firm IDC, it is estimated that the global shipment of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) headsets will be 8.1 million units in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%. But driven by Meta's Quest 3 and Apple's Vision Pro headsets, the shipment volume of AR/VR headsets is expected to see a significant increase in 2024, with an estimated year-on-year growth of 46.4%.
Apple Vision Pro is expected to not only drive the development of the XR industry, but also drive supply chain enterprises. According to a research report by Guojin Securities, it is recommended to actively pay attention to equipment suppliers (Rongqi Technology, Zhifang, Huaxing Yuanchuang, Jiepute, Korui Technology, Saiteng Co., Ltd.) and component suppliers (Zhaowei Electromechanical, Gaowei Electronics, Lixun Precision, Changying Precision and other fruit chain companies).
According to a research report by Guolian Securities, the listing of Vision Pro not only directly affects its related supply chain companies, but also brings new investment opportunities to the XR industry, especially for content ecosystem vendors. In the supply chain of Apple Vision Pro, more than half of the total number of Chinese suppliers are mainly responsible for structural ontology, sensor modules, and OEM, and related companies are worth paying attention to. VisionPro is expected to lead the development of the XR content ecosystem and provide industry investment opportunities, especially in related fields such as gaming, film and television, education, and broadcasting media.
Apple faces a cold start to the year, with iPhone sales in China declining by 30%
Although Vision Pro carries the hope of Apple entering a "new era", the current sales of Apple's basic iPhone have declined in China.
Recently, analysts from American investment bank Jefferies released a report stating that the decline in sales of Apple's iPhone in the Chinese market is intensifying, with iPhone sales experiencing a cliff like decline in the first week of 2024, a sharp drop of 30% compared to the same period last year.
Jeffrey analysts believe that Apple's decline in sales is mainly attributed to fierce competition from local Chinese brands. In contrast, Huawei, for example, launched the Mate 60 series phones at the end of August 2023, which continued to sell well in the Chinese market. Jeffrey expects Huawei's smartphone shipments to reach 35 million units in 2023 and approximately 64 million units in 2024.
As of the close of January 8th Eastern Time, Apple's stock price was at $185.56 per share, with a total market value of $2.89 trillion, a 6% decrease from the $3.08 trillion market value on December 13th, 2023. Barclays analysts led by Tim Long have also downgraded Apple's stock rating, lowering the target price to $160, indicating that Apple's stock price may continue to decline over the next year.
The latest report from Counterpoint Research shows that in 2023, the sales of high-end mobile phones (wholesale prices of $600 or more, approximately RMB 4296) increased by 6% year-on-year, setting a new record. Apple remains the absolute leader in the high-end market, but compared to 2022, its market share has declined this year, from 75% in 2022 to 71% in 2023. In contrast, Huawei's market share increased to 5% in 2023 and Xiaomi's to 2%.
Counterpoint believes that the growth rate of the high-end market may continue to exceed that of the global smartphone market. Mobile phone manufacturers that can achieve differentiation and, more importantly, establish a strong brand image will benefit from the growth of this segmented market.
