Throughout this year, major international pharmaceutical companies have made breakthroughs in multiple fields, which have not only benefited humanity but also changed the industry's landscape in the financial market.
The Gold Rush for Weight Loss Drugs
For many years, the market has been stagnant due to the low efficacy and serious side effects of weight loss products. However, Wegovy has changed the situation, earning billions of dollars for pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk while also bringing Lilly to the center stage of the pharmaceutical industry.
Since the beginning of the year, Lilly's stock price has risen by about 58%, firmly holding the world's largest pharmaceutical company by market value. Novo Nordisk has risen by about 47%, making this Danish pharmaceutical company the most valuable enterprise in Europe. Some analysts believe that by 2030, GLP-1 drugs will grow into a market with a scale of $100 billion.
In addition to treating diabetes and losing weight, some recent studies also found that GLP-1 drugs can reduce the risk of adverse cardiovascular events, and the potential indications may be very wide. Although some pharmaceutical companies have also attempted to join the "gold rush", the drug results of companies such as Pfizer have not performed well and it seems difficult to shake the positions of the top two companies, Li and Nuo.
There are also some speculations that such drugs may have potential impacts on other industries, including food production and catering. However, the biggest obstacle is the shortage of drug supply, and some analyses predict that there will be some improvement in 2024, but it may take several years to fully solve the problem.
Alzheimer's star drug
During the year, the field of Alzheimer's disease also attracted widespread attention. At the beginning of the year, Leqembi obtained the "accelerated approval pathway" from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and comprehensive FDA approval in July, marking a milestone in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease.
Leqembi is jointly developed by Biogen and Eisai Co., Ltd., with an annual treatment cost of up to 26500 US dollars (approximately 190000 RMB). It is understood that Alzheimer's disease torments approximately 6 million Americans, and if included in US healthcare insurance, pharmaceutical companies will be able to earn substantial income.
It should be pointed out that LeQEMBI cannot cure the irreversible brain disease of Alzheimer's disease, and can only slow down the decline in memory and thinking agility of patients who receive treatment by 27%.
According to data released by Weicai, Leqembi's sales in the third quarter were $2 million, and some analysts predict that the drug's annual revenue will reach $12 million. In October of this year, Weicai also announced that the subcutaneous preparation version of Leqembi showed promising preliminary results in clinical trials and is expected to become a more convenient treatment option in the future.
Bojian's financial report shows that about 800 people have received treatment with Leqembi, making it difficult to achieve the goal of covering 10000 patients by March 2024. CEO Chris Viehbacher said during a conference call, "This can only be a gradual process of promotion."
COVID-19 "abdicate" RSV
COVID-19 vaccine and COVID-19 therapy are losers in the financial market. Due to the sharp drop in demand, Pfizer's share price has fallen by about 45% this year, even lower than the level before the COVID-19 pandemic; Modena's stock price has also fallen by about 50%, and the company has been experiencing losses for two consecutive quarters.
At present, both companies hope that other products can help turn the situation around, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines. RSV is a widely present and infectious virus that mainly affects children under 5 years old and elderly people over 65 years old. Due to the successive approval of preventive vaccines in the United States, 2023 is also known as the "first year of commercialization of RSV vaccines" in the industry.
In March of this year, the RSV vaccine developed by GlaxoSmithKline, mainly for the elderly, was launched in the United States. Research has shown that it can reduce the risk of respiratory diseases in 82.6% of patients. The vaccine generated approximately $860 million in revenue within a few months, and GlaxoSmithKline stated that "there is still a lot of room for growth.".
Three months later, Pfizer also launched its own RSV vaccine, which can be used for pregnant women to vaccinate against lower respiratory diseases caused by RSV in newborns to 6-month-old infants. Pfizer announced vaccine sales of $375 million in November, which is lower than GlaxoSmithKline, but the company stated that its adoption rate is growing very rapidly and will continue until 2024.
Modena also expects that its RSV vaccine based on MRNA technology is expected to be approved soon in 2024.