China Net Finance, December 5th (Reporter Liu Xiaofei): The stock price of Miniso plummeted this morning. As of publication, the quoted price per share is HKD 36.6, a decrease of over 20%.
Recently, Miniso released its first quarter results for the 2024 fiscal year. During the period, Miniso achieved a revenue of 3.791 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.7%; The profit was 618 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53%.
As of September 30, 2023, the number of Miniso stores exceeded 6000 for the first time, reaching 6115, a year-on-year increase of 819. The number of stores located in China and overseas is 3802 and 2313, respectively, and the number of TOP TOY stores is 122.
Miniso stated that the company has achieved its previously planned net growth target of 350-450 domestic stores one quarter ahead of schedule, and is expected to open another 100-200 new stores within the natural year of 2023. At the same time, the company will make every effort to achieve the annual net growth target of 350-450 overseas stores.
According to a research report by Zhongtai Securities, the expansion of Miniso's stores is currently in the first half of the S-curve, and the growth potential is promising. The product price band determines that the company has strong vitality in the sinking market, and domestic channel sinking is one of the future sources of growth. And the overseas market will be the core of growth, and we believe that with China's supply chain advantages, its market potential is not inferior to that of the domestic market. However, its research report highlights a series of risks faced by Miniso, including cross-border policies, unexpected new store openings, sample bias, and information lag.
Caitong Securities also pointed out that MINISO has a large space for opening stores and good growth potential in the medium and long term. It is expected that MINISO's revenue for FY24-26 will be 14.839 billion yuan, 18.157 billion yuan, and 21.284 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 2.324 billion yuan, 2.865 billion yuan, and 3.436 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE of 25.3/20.5/17.1X, maintaining a "holding" rating. At the same time, it also highlights the risks of unexpected expansion of Miniso stores, intensified industry competition, and unexpected product iterations.
According to a research report by Tianfeng Securities, based on the gradual release of macro overall consumption potential, as well as the comprehensive acceleration of the company's overseas layout and brand strategy upgrade, Miniso is expected to achieve dual growth in revenue and profit. It is expected that the overall revenue of Miniso in FY2024 will be 15.3 billion yuan (previously 14.5 billion yuan), with an adjusted net profit of 2.4 billion yuan. Maintain a "buy" rating. At the same time, Tianfeng Securities pointed out risks such as slow consumer recovery, unexpected store expansion, and intensified overseas business risks for Miniso.