Since the beginning of this week, several investment banks such as UBS and Goldman Sachs have released research reports, reiterating Alibaba's "buy" rating, believing that the market has not seen the full picture of Alibaba, and emphasizing that the user first and price power strategies of Taobao and Tmall have begun to take effect, forming a positive growth cycle between users, merchants, and platforms.
This month, Alibaba Group announced its Q2 2024 financial performance, with revenue increasing by 9% and adjusted EBITA increasing by 18% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. Among them, Taotian Group's customer management revenue (CMR) and adjusted EBITA both achieved year-on-year growth, with a profit of 6.45 billion US dollars, also exceeding market expectations.
However, due to macroeconomic factors and adjustments to the company's business listing plan, Alibaba's stock price has fluctuated. UBS stated in its report on November 27th that the market is overly focused on factors beyond performance, but has not been able to see the full picture.
UBS believes that even considering only the return on capital, Alibaba's stock price is still very attractive, and specifically mentions that Taobao and Tmall's investment in users and pricing power has formed a "positive cycle", laying a key foundation for sustained growth in the future.
Due to Taotian Group being in a critical period of strategic transformation, market institutions generally believe that compared to short-term revenue growth, indicators such as users, merchants, and orders are more important and represent long-term growth potential. Goldman Sachs also expressed a similar view in a recent research report and expressed optimism about the continued growth of advertising revenue on Taobao and Tmall. "We have noticed that indicators such as users, user purchase frequency, and order volume have all improved this quarter, with small and medium-sized businesses, especially newly added businesses, being more willing to use advertising tools.".
According to independent research interviews conducted by Goldman Sachs with businesses, the latest marketing tools launched by Taobao and Tmall not only help businesses improve marketing efficiency, but also increase the willingness of small and medium-sized enterprises to invest in Taobao. Goldman Sachs believes that although the low commission rates of small and medium-sized businesses may lower the short-term revenue of Taobao and Tmall, the increase in total business volume will ultimately offset the short-term negative impact.