During his previous campaign for the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, Shigeru Ishiba, who was still a popular candidate at the time, said, "It is still unclear how the world situation will change, and we will not announce the immediate dissolution of the House of Representatives." After winning the election, his attitude changed.
According to CCTV News, at 9:00 am local time on October 9th, the Japanese government held an extraordinary cabinet meeting and decided to dissolve the House of Representatives. According to Japanese law, the Prime Minister of Japan has the power to dissolve the House of Representatives.
According to Shigeru Ishiba's agenda plan at the press conference after winning the election, he will immediately form a new cabinet after taking office as Prime Minister on October 1st, deliver his inauguration speech on October 4th, dissolve the House of Representatives on October 9th, release the announcement of the House of Representatives election on October 15th, and hold the House of Representatives election on October 27th. Shigeru Ishiba said, 'It is necessary for the new regime to accept the judgment of the people as soon as possible.'.
The election for the House of Representatives of the Japanese Diet is held every four years, and the term of office of the current members of the House of Representatives will expire in October 2025. On the 9th, Shigeru Ishiba dissolved the House of Representatives, only 8 days after he took office as the Prime Minister of Japan, setting a "fastest record" since World War II. Previously, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida dissolved the House of Representatives 10 days after taking office in October 2021.
Pursuing victory in the early election
Why did Shigeru Ishiba focus on early elections just 8 days after the establishment of the new cabinet? When accepting a new position, the newly appointed Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party, Hiroshi Moriyama, suggested to Shigeru Ishiba to take advantage of the current party leadership election heat and hold the House of Representatives election as soon as possible. The Komeito Party, which forms a ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party, reportedly holds the same opinion.
The support rate of the new cabinet in Japan is almost always the highest at the time of taking office, and may gradually decline due to various variables during the term, such as improper behavior of cabinet members. History shows that the current senior politician of the Liberal Democratic Party, Taro Aso, had a high support rate when he became the Prime Minister of Japan in September 2008. However, Aso failed to seize the opportunity and ultimately had to hastily dissolve the House of Representatives one year later, when his term as a member of parliament was about to expire. This led to a disastrous defeat for the Liberal Democratic Party in subsequent elections and his resignation. Due to the expiration of the term of the current members of the House of Representatives in October 2025, there are concerns within the Liberal Democratic Party about "repeating historical mistakes".
Previous polls showed that the support rate of the Liberal Democratic Party, which has changed its leader, has also increased among the Japanese people. It rose from around 22% in the later period of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's rule to 33%, an increase of 4 percentage points from last month. Therefore, in the view of Chen Yan, the director of the Japan Enterprise (China) Research Institute, it is to regain the trust of the new government and get rid of a series of troubles such as the "black gold scandal" during the previous government period. "If Shigeru Ishiba wants to establish a reform style that is different from the old one, the earlier he takes action, the better. This is not only beneficial to the Liberal Democratic Party itself, but also helps to enhance Ishiba's centripetal force, which is one of the few opportunities facing the Ishiba regime
Early elections also mean that Shigeru Ishiba will have a direct confrontation with the new leader of the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, and former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, over the policy agenda.
Chen Yan also told First Financial that there will be significant changes in the Ishiba Shigeru Cabinet in the future, as after the House of Representatives elections on October 27th, Ishiba Shigeru will make changes to the cabinet candidates based on actual circumstances. "There will only be a truly new cabinet after the elections on October 27th, and the current cabinet is more of a 'transitional' role." In Chen Yan's view, Ishiba Shigeru's current cabinet formation is only a tentative move to mobilize personnel and attempt to balance various forces within the party.
Overcoming deflation is the primary economic task
Chen Youjun, a researcher at the World Economy Research Institute of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, told First Financial that for the newly appointed Shigeru Ishiba, the top priority is to bridge the internal differences within the party. "The previous participation of nine people in the election shows that there are significant differences of opinion within the Liberal Democratic Party, and how to seek the greatest common denominator and resolve the opposition forces within the party is obviously the first task
Secondly, Chen Youjun stated that the main challenge facing the new government formed by Shigeru Ishiba is economic issues. After all, the economy is closely related to the livelihoods of the Japanese people, especially with the current uncertainty of the Japanese economic outlook. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, and on the other hand, the Bank of Japan is gradually raising interest rates. There is no consensus on the prospects of the Japanese economy after interest rate hikes. "He analyzed," In this context, how to better stimulate consumption and investment, and drive steady economic growth, is also an important task for the new government
Before Shigeru Ishiba took office, several volatile organizations downgraded the prospects for Japan's economic recovery. The latest forecast from the OECD predicts that the Japanese economy will shrink by 0.1% in 2024, with an expected growth rate of around 1.4% in 2025. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also predicted in its updated World Economic Outlook report in mid July that Japan's economy would grow by 0.7% in 2024, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from previous expectations.
The Japanese Cabinet Office announced at the economic and financial consultation meeting in mid July that the projected year-on-year growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2024, excluding the impact of price changes, is 0.9%, a decrease of 0.4% compared to the 1.3% year-on-year growth decided at the Cabinet meeting in January. Among them, the forecast for personal consumption growth, which accounts for more than half of GDP, has been lowered from 1.2% in January to 0.5%. Analysis suggests that, in addition to the issue of car manufacturers falsifying products leading to car production shutdowns, the main reason is the depreciation of the yen and the rise in import prices resulting in weak personal consumption.
Currently, Shigeru Ishiba has made overcoming deflation his top economic priority during his term, hoping to put Japan on a stable growth track. "I will decisively end deflation and build a future for our economy," he said
Specifically, Shigeru Ishiba stated that he will seek to increase wages, improve productivity, support the revitalization of rural areas, and turn Japan into an "investment powerhouse" by continuing to encourage private savings to shift towards investment. In addition, in order to help vulnerable groups and promote economic growth, Shigeru Ishiba stated that government spending will be used in appropriate circumstances, but he also promised to improve the severely damaged national balance sheet.
Regarding Japan's monetary policy, Shigeru Ishiba has stated that he is in line with the current position of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and there is still time to observe changes in the market and economy before adjusting interest rates. He hopes to dispel doubts about central bank intervention and reiterates that monetary policy should be decided by the Bank of Japan. In addition to other economic policies, Shigeru Ishiba also promised to raise the minimum wage from 1055 yen per hour to 1500 yen (approximately $10.24) within this decade.
Last week, Shigeru Ishiba instructed the cabinet to develop a comprehensive spending plan that will include helping low-income families cope with rising prices of essential goods such as rice and fuel. It is reported that the plan outline sets a coordinated three-year window period for eliminating deflation, indicating that the Japanese government does not expect to end deflation in the short term.