According to a report released by Counterpoint Research, a well-known consumer electronics industry research institution, on Wednesday, Apple was surpassed by Chinese brand Xiaomi for the first time in three years (since August 2021) in the global mobile phone market in August, falling to the third largest mobile phone brand in the world.
(Source: Counterpoint Research)
The organization stated that there are two main reasons behind this situation. Firstly, Apple's iPhone has traditionally experienced a seasonal sales off-season before the release of new models in September. At the same time, although Xiaomi's sales volume remained flat month on month in August, Chinese brands are also one of the fastest-growing brands in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year sales growth rate of 22%. Even if the growth rate in the second half of the year slows down due to the base effect, Counterpoint expects the brand to still achieve a "strong double-digit percentage" annual growth rate.
(Source: Counterpoint)
Regarding Xiaomi's performance of being "stronger than the market", Tarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint, explained that this year Xiaomi has adopted a more streamlined product strategy, focusing on creating a flagship model in each price range instead of cramming multiple devices into a segmented market. Although Xiaomi continues to demonstrate strong performance in entry-level to mid-range devices, it has also made progress in the high-end market represented by its foldable and Ultra series.
It is not difficult to see from the above chart that Apple's iPhone reaches a sales peak every year after the release of new products in September. It is not difficult to expect that Apple will regain its second or even first place in the world after October. The real problem is that with the increasingly fierce competition in the high-end mobile phone market, Apple's "hibernation" in new forms (such as foldable screens) and generative AI is not a good thing for iPhone sales.
The trend of iPhone replacement is ambiguous
Due to the fact that the "Apple Smart", which has the greatest impact on high-end users, is still in an unknown state, the new iPhone pre order data that started last Friday also showed expected progress.
Renowned consumer electronics analyst Guo Mingchi's analysis released last weekend showed that the pre-sale situation of the two iPhone 16 Pro series phones is significantly weaker than the previous generation. The expected pre-sale quantity for the first weekend of iPhone 16 Pro Max is 17.1 million units, which is 16% less than the same period for iPhone 15 Pro Max. On the contrary, the iPhone 16 and 16 Plus have significantly better pre order data than the previous generation due to significant hardware improvements (by Apple standards).
(Source: Guo Mingchi)
As a result, Apple's stock price plummeted nearly 3% on Monday, reaching a new low in nearly a month.
Guo Mingchi analyzed that the key factor for the lower than expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is that "Apple Smart" has not been released simultaneously with the phone, and the iPhone also faces fierce competition in the Chinese market. So the upcoming launch of AI features, as well as promotions during Singles' Day and holiday seasons in Europe and America, will define the sales curve of the iPhone 16 series.
At its press conference in early September, Apple announced that "Apple Smart" will support English users in the United States in October this year, followed by localized English support in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom in December this year. Chinese, French, Spanish, and Japanese users will have to wait until next year to have the opportunity to use the true "Apple AI".
(Source: Apple China official website)
Of course, there will also be a problem here: since they won't be able to use "Apple Smart" until next year, these Pro Max users will face another choice - waiting for the iPhone 17. According to rumors, the iPhone 17 Pro Max will be upgraded to 12GB of memory for the first time (up to 50% increase!), and the chip will also be upgraded to TSMC's 2nm process.