According to analysts from Morningstar and Pitchbook, it is estimated that there will be 16 new GLP-1 drugs launched in the weight loss drug market by 2029, competing for the lucrative market currently dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
In a joint report released on Monday (September 9), analysts estimated that the market for obesity treatment would expand to 200 billion dollars by 2031, partly because the penetration rate of diabetes market is expected to be higher.
At that time, these 16 new GLP-1 drugs may occupy about one-third of the market, which is about 70 billion US dollars; And Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, two weight loss drug giants, will still retain nearly 70% of the market share.
At the same time, this report also points out that the stocks of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are overvalued. Since the beginning of the year, Novo Nordisk has risen by over 25%, while Eli Lilly's stock price has risen by 52%.
More market participants
The surge in demand for popular weight loss drugs such as Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound has made more competitors' eyes red, prompting them to test their own weight loss therapies. Currently, pharmaceutical giants such as Amgen and Pfizer are testing their candidate drugs in clinical trials.
Other potential new therapies include drugs from companies such as Roche, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Zealand Pharma, as well as next-generation drugs from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. These GLP-1 drugs still require clinical trials and are expected to be launched within three to four years.
The weight loss drug MariTide being tested by Anjin is one of the most anticipated weight loss drugs in the current market. A previous early clinical trial showed that patients receiving the highest dose of the drug lost an average of 14.5% weight within 12 weeks, and MariTide seems to help patients maintain longer weight loss effects after discontinuing the medication.
More competition also means that it will put pressure on the prices of GLP-1 weight loss drugs. The report suggests that new entrants are expected to lower prices as they compete for market share.
The report also pointed out that in the next 18 months, large pharmaceutical companies involved in the field of weight loss drugs will make large-scale acquisitions, targeting small companies specializing in obesity drug development. Potential acquisition targets include Structure Therapeutics, Viking Therapeutics, Altimmune, and other companies.