Against the backdrop of slowing demand for electric vehicles in Europe and the United States, as well as the excessive "involution" of the Chinese automotive market, the Southeast Asian market "looks very beautiful" and has attracted more and more competitors. Rohan Patel, senior director of Tesla's public policy and business development, once said that Southeast Asia will undoubtedly become the main growth point of battery energy storage and electric vehicle applications in the next few years. But according to multiple local media reports recently, Tesla has made a decision to stop plans to establish manufacturing plants in Thailand and instead focus on expanding its charging network in the country. According to sources, Tesla will not continue the process of opening factories in Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and other countries, except for China, the United States, and Germany.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar stated last Friday that Tesla's postponement of expansion plans in Southeast Asia is not related to local performance or policies, but rather because the company is unable to compete with Chinese electric vehicles, resulting in losses.
During last month's earnings conference call, Tesla told investors that its profits had almost halved due to fierce competition from peers. According to the financial report released last month, Tesla's net profit for the second quarter of this year was $1.5 billion, a decrease of 45%, with an operating profit margin of 6.3%, which is not only lower than the same period last year's 9.6%, but also lower than many established car manufacturers.
According to statistics, from 2021 to 2023, Tesla's global sales growth rate continued to slow down, with year-on-year growth rates of 87%, 40%, and 38%, respectively. In the first quarter of this year, delivery volume decreased by 8.3% year-on-year, becoming its first quarterly sales decline in nearly four years. Automotive analyst Zhong Shi believes that the current competitive environment in the new energy vehicle market is very different from when Tesla was first produced domestically. In the early days, Tesla seized the market opportunity and rapidly increased sales. However, currently, domestic brands continue to accelerate product development, iterate models rapidly, and continuously lower prices, which to some extent diverts Tesla's model sales.
Tesla currently has four vehicle factories located in Shanghai, China, Berlin, Germany, Austin, Texas, and Fremont, California. In recent years, Tesla has been rumored to be planning to establish factories in emerging market countries, including Indonesia, Thailand, and India.
Tesla currently only publicly promises to build a factory in Mexico, but the plan faces considerable uncertainty. Musk previously stated that Tesla will postpone its decision on whether to build a factory in Mexico until after the US presidential election in November.
Musk explained that if Republican presidential candidate Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on cars produced in Mexico comes true, then Tesla's massive investment in Mexico will be meaningless.
From the perspective of the Southeast Asian market, Japanese and Chinese car companies have the strongest presence. Japanese car companies have long entered Southeast Asia and have a high market share there; In recent years, Chinese car companies have accelerated their overseas expansion and are gradually establishing a foothold in Southeast Asia through new energy vehicles, occupying a dominant position in the local electric vehicle market. Taking Thailand as an example, a dual pattern has emerged where 80% of the market consists of Japanese cars and 80% of electric vehicles are Chinese brands.
The Thai Kaitai Research Center predicts that as the Thai government continues to promote the popularization of electric vehicles, more Chinese electric vehicle brands will enter the Thai market in 2024. The President of the Thai Electric Vehicle Enterprises Association, Grisada Udamo, stated that Chinese car brands' investment in Thailand will continue to grow in 2024, with Chinese brands such as MG, Great Wall Motors, BYD, Changan, and Nezha gaining increasing acceptance in the Thai market. He also pointed out that there are more and more electric vehicle models priced under 1 million Thai baht (about 200000 yuan) in the market, and with the increasingly sound after-sales service system, Thai consumers' purchasing confidence is gradually increasing. Taking the 2024 BYD Atto3 as an example, its starting price is about 900000 Thai baht, far lower than the prices of Japanese competitors such as Toyota bZ4X and Nissan Leaf. At this year's auto show, BYD painted the display cars with the words "WE ARE NO.1", indicating that Chinese car companies are no longer hiding their ambition to replace competitors such as Toyota.
The Thai government has been actively recruiting multinational car companies to invest in the production of electric vehicles locally. Thai Prime Minister Saita had previously extended invitations to local car companies during his visits to the United States and Japan. At the end of last year, during Saita's visit to Japan, he held consultations with executives from several Japanese car companies and used Chinese car companies to stimulate Japanese car companies, stating that "if we don't build electric cars anymore, we will be left behind". He also promised to provide support to Japanese car companies, which led to the Japanese car companies investing 150 billion baht in Thailand's electrification sector.
Previously, Congsomjit, an official from the Thai Prime Minister's Office, stated that Tesla is in negotiations with the Thai government to discuss the establishment of a factory in Thailand. At the end of last year, Tesla executives went to Thailand to conduct an on-site survey of potential factory locations. It is reported that the Thai government has promised to provide Tesla with 100% green energy to operate this potential factory.
The battle between major car companies in the Southeast Asian market has already begun, and the competition will only become increasingly fierce in the future. According to the prediction of international accounting firm Ernst&Young, by 2035, the sales of electric vehicles in six Southeast Asian countries (Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam) will reach 8.5 million units, and the sales revenue will also increase from 2 billion US dollars in 2021 to 80-100 billion US dollars. Some of these sales will come from new increments, while a larger portion will come from the replacement of gasoline vehicles.
Beijing Business Daily Comprehensive Report