Which industries would benefit from the uncertainty of the United States general election and the certainty of the Fed ' s interest rate reduction? International
阿豆学长长ov
发表于 2024-7-21 09:48:40
172
0
0
The current President of the United States, Biden, will withdraw from the presidential election, and will the Democrats run for office? Will Trump be in the White House again? These are all uncertainties. At the same time, the Fed's probability of falling interest rates in September has exceeded 95 per cent, and it is certain that the variable will be whether to start in July or in September, and in which industries will the decline boost? Zenium
Uncertainty about the U.S. election. Black swans.
In the early hours of Beijing time on 19 July, former leader of the Democratic Party of the United States, Pélosi, publicly stated that the current President, Biden, was being persuaded to withdraw from the presidential election and that there might soon be news. Soon there were reports that the White House in the United States had declared Biden to be positive.
With regard to the Fed's interest rate reduction, the probability of action in September had exceeded 95 per cent. So the question is, is the Fed going one step ahead and choosing to cut interest on July 31st, Eastern time? Biden and Trump have plans for this.
The Fed's interest rate decrease is certain.
Although negative statements against Biden from the outside are on the rise, Biden is not, in fact, yet a failure. For Biden, of course, it is hoped that the Fed will be able to act by the end of July. With a drop in interest rates, the United States economy could be stimulated, as well as benefiting the United States stock market. As a result, more people would vote for Biden of the Democrats, and it would not be impossible for Biden to reverse the decline.
At the same time, for Trump, the Fed would certainly be expected to lower interest rates later, and the Democrats would not want more credit for the economic improvement.
The market now expects that the Fed will reduce interest rates twice in 2024 and possibly four times in 2025. In addition, the market believed that if Trump was elected successfully, he would put more pressure on the Fed to reduce its interest rates.
The market is shaken by variations in the US general election, but it needs to be seen whether the Fed’s interest rate reduction, a certain event, will start in July or September.
What are the industries that benefit from the Fed interest rate reduction?
Once interest rates are reduced, three years (2024-2026) are likely to last, and which sectors of the United States capital market will benefit from this?
One is banking. The fall in interest rates helps to stimulate economic growth and domestic demand, which is beneficial to banks. When banks lower the interest rate on loans, it is easier for enterprises and individuals to obtain loans, which can help boost investment and consumption and thus stimulate economic growth. Economic growth, in turn, will have a positive impact on the banking sector, as more economic activity implies increased demand for bank loans, which is conducive to increased business growth and increased profitability.
Reductions in interest rates can increase bank liquidity. The reduction in interest rates could lead to an outflow of funds from banks and a shift from savings to investment or consumption, with the result that liquidity would increase. This provides banks with more financial resources and broader business space.
Interest-rate reductions can ease pressure on banks in the area of commercial property. The Moody ' s report states that by lowering interest rates, can ease bank pressure on commercial property loans, which can help to improve the bank ' s financial position and reduce the risk of bad debts.
In fact, investors have begun to calculate the expected interest-rate reductions into capital markets, with United States financial units such as United States banks, American Express, and others, such as visa, performing well recently.
The second is consumer goods that are just in need. Declining interest rates can help to stimulate increased spending by consumers and businesses, which can be a positive catalyst for consumer goods such as food, basic necessities, etc., which means that more consumers can afford these basic necessities of life, which will further stimulate demand. At the same time, interest-rate reductions can increase consumer and business confidence, which can also help to increase the willingness to purchase consumer goods in the demand category.
The third is the restructured Science and Technology Unit. The view was expressed that, if Biden withdrew, the NASDAQ index would “break down” because the Silicon Valley in the United States was the home of the Democrats and the Silicon Valley would be “hit” when Trump came on stage. In fact, the recent reversal of the NASDAQ index is due in large part to the alarming increase over time, which is not a good thing for any market to surge in a short time, requiring a return to the risks.
Technology is the first productivity, and the United States knows it. The reduction in interest rates would make the market more liquid and, as the technology unit was restructured, the capital would be re-oriented to the United States science and technology unit.
Editor of this article
First trial, Tsui Lanying.
Zhang Wei, final trial
Review of Past Arts--
01
02
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Is the double-digit basis point drop in US short-term bond yields ubiquitous in the interest rate market?
- The US stock market has clearly overbought! Xiao Mo Warning: The downward trend of inflation in the United States may have stopped
- Suddenly bearish! US January CPI exceeded expectations across the board!
- The US economy experienced a significant slowdown in the first quarter, with strong inflation and interest rate cuts possibly postponed until the end of the year
- Federal Reserve Voting Committee: Increased uncertainty about inflation outlook should be patiently waited for now
- The leading retail investor in the United States has been hit hard, and his stock price has dropped to suspicion. "Did my computer get stuck?"
- Tesla's shareholder meeting is approaching, and analysts say the "$50 billion compensation plan" is expected to end the uncertainty surrounding Musk
- Late night bearish news for American retail giants! The sincerity and money of the acquirer are not enough, and the stock price of Macy's plummeted
- The Federal Reserve awakens the alarm: US household debt has risen to record levels
- The Pentagon suddenly spoke up! Allow Ukraine to use American made weapons to counterattack Russia
-
过去一周的时间里,有关苹果微信“二选一”的话题持续霸占各个平台热搜,甚至有媒体还在微博发起了“如果苹果微信二选一,你选择iPhone还是微信?”的投票,当然结果是微信取得了压倒性的胜利。 从最新的 ...
- lub_pig
- 昨天 17:05
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
今日,特斯拉AI团队发布产品路线图,其中,预计2025年第一季度在中国和欧洲推出完全自动驾驶(FSD),但仍有待监管批准。 自2016年以来,马斯克一直在探索特斯拉的FSD自动驾驶方案。2024年,特斯拉FSD V12 ...
- seisei
- 前天 16:32
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【全球市场】1、道指跌0.54%,纳指涨0.25%,标普跌0.30%。2、特斯拉涨近5%,亚马逊涨超2%。3、纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.88%,蔚来涨超14%。
- wishii
- 昨天 22:03
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【ASML CEO回应对华出口限制:会有更多应对措施】当地时间9月4日,荷兰计算机芯片设备供应商ASML首席执行官Christophe Fouquet在花旗银行的一场会议上表示,美国限制ASML对华出口是出于“经济动机”。他预计该公司应 ...
- mbgg2797
- 前天 09:15
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏