On July 17th, before the stock market opened, Dutch lithography machine giant ASML released its Q2 2024 financial report. In fact, the net sales revenue reached 6.2 billion euros, exceeding the market expectation of 6 billion euros, an increase of 18% compared to the same period last year; The gross profit margin was 51.5%, which is also higher than the expected target.
The company's net profit also maintained a positive growth of 1.6 billion euros, compared to 1.224 billion euros in the same period last year.
According to the company's forecast, the net sales for the third quarter will be 6.7 billion to 7.3 billion euros, further increasing from the second quarter, with a gross profit margin between 50% and 51%.
For the overall market situation of the global semiconductor market this year, ASML predicts that it will still be an "adjustment year" for the recovery from the downward cycle. After experiencing sluggish market demand and semiconductor manufacturers sacrificing profits to reduce inventory, the overall inventory level of the industry has improved and will continue to recover in the second half of this year. The company expects its revenue in 2024 to be basically the same as last year, with a slightly lower gross profit margin.
In its view, by 2025, the semiconductor industry will enter an upward cycle of comprehensive growth. As of the end of the second quarter, ASML's total outstanding orders amounted to 39 billion euros. Based on discussions with customers and a large number of unfulfilled orders, the company predicts that 2025 will be a strong year for performance.
It is worth noting that, according to the official introduction, the unexpected growth in this quarter is mainly due to the increase in sales of DUV lithography machines under the company, and Chinese Mainland is currently the largest market driving the growth of DUV sales.
ASML's current lithography machine products are mainly divided into two categories: DUV (deep ultraviolet light) and EUV (extreme ultraviolet light). DUV lithography machines can meet the chip manufacturing needs of 7nm and above processes, while EUV lithography machines are generally used for more advanced processes, such as smaller process nodes of 5nm and below.
In the sales data of lithography machine systems in the second quarter, DUV lithography machines have accounted for half of the total sales (ArFi corresponds to its DUV product line in the figure below), and the total sales in the second quarter increased by nearly 800 million euros compared to the first quarter, almost all of which came from the increased sales of DUV.
Source: ASML Financial Report
Data shows that the sales of lithography system in the Chinese Mainland market in the first quarter and the second quarter of this year accounted for 49%, nearly half. The sales of lithography machine systems shipped to the Chinese market reached 2.33 billion euros in the second quarter, compared to 1.94 billion euros in the first quarter.
Since 2019, ASML's EUV lithography machine has been prohibited from selling in the Chinese Mainland market, and mainland customers can only purchase DUVs. Since last year, the United States has been pressuring the Netherlands to expand the ban on ASML's high-end and mid to high end DUV lithography machine models. Also since the end of last year, DUV lithography machine's contribution to ASML's revenue has grown rapidly, behind which is the obvious acceleration of customers in Chinese Mainland to pull goods from DUV.
The latest import and export data also reflects this trend. According to the statistics of China Customs from January to February this year, the amount of photolithography machines imported by Chinese Mainland from the Netherlands was 1.057 billion US dollars, an increase of 256.1% year on year. Throughout the first half of the year, China's semiconductor equipment imports surged, with Japan accounting for almost one-third of the import share and the Netherlands being one of the important sources of imports.
China is currently the largest market for global semiconductor equipment sales. According to SEMI (International Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Industry Association) estimates, with the recovery of chip manufacturing demand and the stimulation of AI, the global semiconductor equipment will grow significantly in 2024 and 2025, while the equipment shipments from Chinese Mainland to the Chinese market in 2024 are expected to exceed 35 billion dollars, accounting for 32% of the global share.
ASML management has also recently emphasized the importance of the Chinese market. On July 8th, ASML's new CEO Christophe Fouquet stated in an interview with German media that China is expanding its production capacity and market share of mature process chips, which is urgently needed globally. Especially in the automotive industry, a large amount of chips with mature processes are needed, and 'Europe cannot even meet half of its own needs'.
The lithography equipment for producing mature process chips is currently one of ASML's important sources of revenue. Christophe Fouquet believes that considering the supply-demand relationship, finding effective alternatives is more important than simply banning the EU's plan to launch an investigation into China's production of mature process chips.
If someone wants to slow down this process for some reason, then alternative solutions are needed to prevent someone from producing the product you need, which is meaningless, "said Christophe Fouquet.
On July 17th, it was reported that the United States is considering stricter measures to put pressure on companies from countries such as Japan and the Netherlands to restrict their chip trade with China. In response, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that China has repeatedly expressed a firm stance on the malicious blockade and suppression of China's semiconductor industry by the United States. The United States has politicized, securitized, and instrumentalized economic, trade, and technological issues, continuously increased its chip export controls on China, coerced other countries, suppressed China's semiconductor industry, seriously undermined international trade rules, damaged global supply chain stability, and is not conducive to any party. China has always been firmly opposed to this.
Lin Jian said that he hopes relevant countries can distinguish right from wrong, resolutely resist coercion, jointly maintain a fair and open international economic and trade order, and truly safeguard their own long-term interests.
Affected by the above news, chip stocks in the US stock market generally fell before trading, with ASML falling more than 6%, TSMC falling more than 3%, and Nvidia and AMD falling more than 2%. ASML fell nearly 8% to 903 euros in Amsterdam, marking the largest decline since October 2022.