The footsteps of humanoid robots in landing applications are getting closer and closer. On June 13th local time, Tesla CEO Musk announced at the annual shareholder meeting that Tesla will begin "limited production" of Optimus (Optimus Prime) humanoid robots in 2025 and test humanoid robots in its own factory next year.
Musk predicts that Tesla will have over 1000 or even thousands of Optimus robots in operation next year. It is reported that there are currently two Optimus robots working at Tesla's Fremont factory in California.
"Tesla Optimus humanoid robots are still in their early stages, but there will be a lot of robots in the future, with more robots than humans. Robots have stronger computing power and higher production efficiency than humans. Currently, Optimus does not have very strong intelligence, but it has enough intelligence to complete boring, repetitive, dangerous, and tasks that humans do not want to do." Musk said at last year's World Artificial Intelligence Conference. At this shareholder meeting, Musk mentioned a similar viewpoint, stating that humanoid robots will become the mainstay of industry, with a number expected to surpass humans and reach 10 to 20 billion units.
Musk stated at the shareholder meeting that Tesla aims to produce 1 billion humanoid robots annually, accounting for over 10% of the market share. Optimus costs around $10000, and if sold at $20000 per unit, Tesla will earn substantial profits. The layout of humanoid robots may at some point in the future increase Tesla's market value to $25 trillion, which could be ten times that of the world's most valuable enterprise today.
As of the close on June 13th local time, Tesla's market value was $581.9 billion, while Apple's market value was $3.29 trillion. Apple's market value is more than five times that of Tesla.
This year is referred to as the first year of commercialization of humanoid robots by the industry, including Optimus. Several companies are also looking forward to commercialization prospects and making industry the first stop for commercial landing. The humanoid robot industry chain and the automotive industry chain have a considerable degree of overlap. Not only have car companies such as Tesla and Xiaomi taken the opportunity to enter the market to produce humanoid robots, but from recent cases, the automotive industry has also become the preferred scenario for many commercial landing of humanoid robots.
At the beginning of this year, Figure AI reached an agreement with BMW to deploy the latest humanoid robots at BMW's US factory. After receiving specific task training, AI robots will gradually integrate into manufacturing processes such as body workshops, sheet metal, and warehouses within the next 12-24 months. In April, Boston Power's hydraulic version of humanoid robots retired and the electric drive version of Atlas was launched. As Atlas became more flexible, Boston Power subsequently stated that its shareholder, Hyundai Motor Group, was building the next generation of automotive manufacturing capabilities, which would become a testing ground for new Atlas applications.
Domestic humanoid robots are also targeting the automotive industry. At the beginning of this month, Beijing Xiaomi Robotics Technology Co., Ltd. relocated to Beijing Yizhuang Xiaomi Automobile Factory. According to Xiaomi, the company is promoting the phased implementation of humanoid robots on its own manufacturing line. Industrial and service scenarios will be the main application directions of Xiaomi robots.
On June 13th, Ubisoft revealed that the job responsibilities of the humanoid robot Walker S during its practical training at the car factory include quality inspection of vehicle door locks, rear light cover plates, seat belt inspections, and labeling. The reporter learned from Youbixuan that the company has recently signed a cooperation agreement with Dongfeng Liuqi, and Walker S will enter the Dongfeng Liuqi factory to be responsible for inspection, assembly, and other work.
A recent report from the Institute of Advanced Robotics Industry pointed out that humanoid robot manufacturers such as 1X Technologies, Agility Digit, and Ubisoft are expected to achieve commercial landing this year. From the perspective of planning landing scenarios, the industrial manufacturing and warehousing logistics fields will be the first to achieve application. It is expected that the global humanoid robot market will reach $1.017 billion in 2024 and $15 billion by 2030. From 2024 to 2030, the annual sales of humanoid robots worldwide will increase from 11900 units to 605700 units.
As for why humanoid robots were the first to land in the automotive industry, Lu Hanchen, director of the High Tech Robotics Industry Research Institute, told First Financial reporters that from the perspective of manufacturing industry segmentation, automobiles are the industry with the largest base and one of the industries with the highest degree of automation, and their understanding of automation and intelligence is at the forefront of the market. Automobile customers have a relatively strong willingness to import robots and a strong willingness to pay, and the intelligent and flexible operation capabilities of humanoid robots are worth looking forward to.
But Lu Hanchen also told reporters that Tesla's choice may not be suitable for other humanoid robot manufacturers. The landing in which scenario is related to the capabilities and genes of the manufacturer. Tesla has both robot capabilities and ready-made automotive scenarios, which many manufacturers do not possess. For many humanoid robot manufacturers, high-quality scene data acquisition and training will be one of the obstacles.
Regarding the issue of missing data, Ubisoft executives also told reporters at the performance review and outlook meeting in April this year that the integration of AI and humanoid robots is limited by the lack of application scenario data, and the application scenario lacks sufficient validation. Currently, more people believe that it is in the research and development stage. Zhou Jian, Chairman and CEO of Ubisoft, stated that traditional consumer goods industries such as clothing, shoes, and hats are expected to face labor shortages in the future. Therefore, the company is not only in contact with mobile phone, computer, and automotive manufacturers, but also in contact with some factories in traditional fields and exploring applications and practical training.