Dalio's latest statement: The United States is on the brink of "huge turbulence" and the trend of debt monetization is difficult to change
守遍丝
发表于 2024-5-26 16:07:19
1284
0
0
During an interview with Nikkei Shimbun this week, Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Fund and a well-known Wall Street evangelist, updated his views on topics that global investors are concerned about, such as the state and prospects of the US economy and society, and the trends of major currencies such as the US dollar.
As for the upcoming US election, Dalio also warned that regardless of who ultimately wins, Biden and Trump will face both challenging domestic and international geopolitical conflicts.
The United States is currently in the classic "fifth stage"
Faced with the current problems, Dalio did not forget to revisit the "six stage theory of the internal cycle of a country" in the Principles. The "fifth stage" is characterized by significant differences in wealth and values, which drives a polarized society to confront each other head-on - a stage that is on the edge of a "civil war" but has not yet erupted.
Dalio stated that the United States is currently in the classic "fifth stage", which is characterized by excessive debt issuance caused by natural disasters (droughts, floods, pandemics, etc.), major technological changes, geopolitical conflicts, and a new pattern of international order. The United States is on the brink of great turmoil, but it has not truly fallen into it. The next path depends on the Americans, especially their leaders.
The reason why the preceding "civil war" needs to be in quotation marks is because Dalio believes that the most likely type of civil war in the United States is not the kind where people shoot each other with guns, but rather the state and local governments refuse to follow the instructions of the federal government, and the federal government's handling of this chaotic and dysfunctional situation.
For the upcoming US election, in addition to the many challenges that the two candidates will face, Dalio also raised deeper concerns: the Republican Party is now controlled by the far right, and people are also worried that the Democratic Party will be more influenced by the far left than the moderate left, which means that no matter who wins the election, there is a possibility of huge political conflict in the United States.
The outlook for the US dollar and US inflation
Because inflation is seen as a result of "easing debt pressure," Dalio bluntly stated that he does not believe the Federal Reserve can achieve the so-called 2% inflation target.
He said that just like what is happening in Japan, the United States, and the eurozone - the issuers of these three major reserve currencies are actively pushing for depreciation, and their debts are also shrinking together. The result of this depreciation will be more reflected in more inflation and higher gold prices, rather than a significant depreciation of a certain currency relative to other currencies. He also believes that debt monetization will continue to be a trend in the coming years.
Dalio also pointed out that the US economy is supported by the deterioration of the government's balance sheet and income statement to support the private sector. Therefore, the US government will continue to issue a large number of bonds to cope with the deficit, which is also the reason why inflation rates are difficult to return to the Federal Reserve or other major central bank targets.
The attractiveness of Japanese stocks has declined
Even when facing Japanese media, Dalio still bluntly stated that "Japanese stocks are no longer as attractive as before.".
He said that based on price factors, Japan remains an attractive market, but with tightening monetary policy, the attractiveness of Japanese stocks is naturally different from before.
Dalio also expects that the Bank of Japan can only slowly push for stricter monetary policy, as it has a very large position in bonds and raising interest rates too aggressively may lead to huge losses. At the same time, the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan may push for the depreciation of massive debt by maintaining policy interest rates at relatively low levels of inflation and nominal growth. This also means that Japanese yen bonds will still be a very bad investment, while stocks will be relatively better.
In addition, Japan's interest rate hike will also make it difficult to sustain the flow of Japanese capital into specific markets, which will also put upward pressure on US bond yields.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- US electric vehicle manufacturer Fisker lays off 15% of employees due to operational difficulties, claiming to be in talks with a "large car company" for financing
- Another Bank in the United States Explodes Thunder and Tensions from Multiple Parties | Looking at the World
- 323 drugs in the US are urgently needed due to the "drug shortage" raid!
- The European Union claims to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, but the approach is different from that of the United States. China responds
- OpenAI has been targeted by US antitrust agencies! US high-ranking officials: Media copyright trading or involvement in monopolies
- Wal Mart will pay bonuses to hourly workers in American stores, about 700000 front-line employees may benefit
- What do market institutions think of Trump's leading approval rating after the first round of debate in the US election?
- Expectations of a cooling labor market and interest rate cuts in the United States in June are heating up again
- US June PCE Outlook: Further from 2%, but short-term resistance may emerge
- The United States will allocate $50 million to the Huihe Technology Semiconductor Technology Project
-
过去一周的时间里,有关苹果微信“二选一”的话题持续霸占各个平台热搜,甚至有媒体还在微博发起了“如果苹果微信二选一,你选择iPhone还是微信?”的投票,当然结果是微信取得了压倒性的胜利。 从最新的 ...
- lub_pig
- 前天 17:05
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
今日,特斯拉AI团队发布产品路线图,其中,预计2025年第一季度在中国和欧洲推出完全自动驾驶(FSD),但仍有待监管批准。 自2016年以来,马斯克一直在探索特斯拉的FSD自动驾驶方案。2024年,特斯拉FSD V12 ...
- seisei
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【全球市场】1、道指跌0.54%,纳指涨0.25%,标普跌0.30%。2、特斯拉涨近5%,亚马逊涨超2%。3、纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.88%,蔚来涨超14%。
- wishii
- 前天 22:03
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【ASML CEO回应对华出口限制:会有更多应对措施】当地时间9月4日,荷兰计算机芯片设备供应商ASML首席执行官Christophe Fouquet在花旗银行的一场会议上表示,美国限制ASML对华出口是出于“经济动机”。他预计该公司应 ...
- mbgg2797
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏