On Friday, January 12th local time, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States stated that there is a one-third chance this year will be hotter than 2023, once again setting a new record for the hottest year on record.
In its annual climate analysis, NOAA confirmed the findings of EU scientists that 2023 was the hottest year on record since 1850, 1.35 degrees Celsius higher than the pre industrial average temperature. However, the data from NOAA is slightly lower than the data from the European Union's climate monitoring agency.
The Copernican Climate Change Service (C3S) stated on Tuesday that compared to the pre industrial period of 1850-1900, the global average temperature in 2023 was 1.48 degrees Celsius higher, and 0.17 degrees Celsius higher than the previous hottest year of 2016.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also confirmed on Friday that 2023 is the hottest year on record and stated that the global average temperature over the past decade has been 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than before industrialization.
The record breaking global temperature is mainly caused by climate change, and the El Ni ñ o phenomenon that occurred last year exacerbated the temperature rise. The El Ni ñ o phenomenon can cause warming of the surface waters in the eastern Pacific, thereby pushing up global temperatures.
Climate agencies predict that the El Ni ñ o phenomenon will continue until at least April this year, increasing the likelihood of breaking temperature records again in 2024.
Christopher Hewitt, Director of Climate Services at the World Meteorological Organization, said, "The interesting and frustrating question is, what will happen in 2024? Will it be hotter than 2023? We don't know yet."
NOAA states that there is a one-third chance that 2024 will be hotter than 2023, and a 99% chance that it will become one of the hottest five years on record.
Hewitt said, "The El Ni ñ o phenomenon is likely to continue until April or May, and then we're not sure."
The impact of El Ni ñ o typically peaks during winter in the northern hemisphere, then weakens and transitions to neutral conditions or La Ni ñ a stages, which typically lead to global temperature drops, but there is also a risk of El Ni ñ o making a comeback.
"If we transition to the La Ni ñ a phase, then perhaps 2024 may not be the hottest year on record," said Carlo Bountambo, Director of the Copernican Climate Change Service