Recently, the Global IMF (International Monetary Fund) made a forecast for the purchasing power of countries in 2023, among which the top five are from China, India and Japan in Asia, Germany from Europe and the United States from North America.
According to the IMF forecast data show that by the end of 2023, Germany's purchasing power GDP is expected to increase by $22 million, and the total scale will reach about $5.55 trillion. It is not difficult to find that the purchasing power GDP given by the IMF is actually much higher than the exchange rate GDP.
However, from the IMF's forecast data for Germany, Germany's purchasing power has once again successfully surpassed Russia and regained the title of the first economy in Europe.
You know, since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the German energy issue has been controversial, it is also at this moment, Russia's purchasing power successfully surpassed Germany to become the largest purchasing power economy in Europe.
However, Russia's advantage did not last long, and it was successfully surpassed by Germany again only a year ago.
According to the latest IMF forecast, by the end of 2023, Japan's purchasing power GDP is expected to break through the 6 trillion US dollars mark, will reach 6.46 trillion, even higher than the peak of Japan's exchange rate GDP. After all, Japan's GDP has been stagnant for 30 years, and by the end of last year it had fallen directly to $4.2 trillion.
But Japan's purchasing-power GDP, by contrast, is growing, and its per capita income is also rising slightly.
In addition, if there is no accident in 2023, India's GDP will surpass Japan and become the world's third largest economy, and India's purchasing power GDP is also expected to reach about 13 trillion US dollars, this set of data has reached half of the US GDP, if according to the current development trend of India. It could be on par with the US economy within 20 years.
However, it is worth noting that by the end of 2023, the United States, as the world's largest economy, is still ranked second in the world in terms of purchasing power GDP, and the gap between it and China is still expanding, and according to the latest statistics released by the IMF, the purchasing power GDP of the United States is expected to break through 26 trillion in 2023. It's the highest level in American history.
It should be noted that in the calculation of GDP, the US dollar is used as a reference calculation, which means that the IMF's forecast of US purchasing power GDP is actually the same as the US exchange rate GDP.
In other words, the US GDP is also expected to exceed $26 trillion in 2023. If the US economy continues on this trend, it will most likely become the first country in the world with a GDP above $30 trillion.
According to the corresponding statistical data, in fact, as early as 2014, China's purchasing power GDP has successfully surpassed the United States, becoming the world's largest purchasing power GDP economy, and at the same time, the gap between China and the United States on purchasing power GDP is also widening.
It is reported that by the end of 2022, China's purchasing power GDP has actually exceeded the United States 4.9 trillion, and after entering 2023, the gap is still expanding.
According to the latest forecast data of the IMF, by the end of 2023, China's purchasing power GDP growth is expected to reach 3 trillion, breaking a record high, reaching 33.01 trillion.
It is more than $6 trillion higher than that of the United States, and it is worth noting that purchasing power GDP is measured on the basis of real purchasing power, so it does not involve the exchange rate issue, so it is not affected by the long-term fluctuations of exchange rates.
Judging from our country's rapid development in recent years, it is almost impossible for the United States to catch up with us.
Due to the recent war between Russia and Ukraine, by the way, Russia, according to statistics, in 2022, the purchasing power GDP of Russia surpassed Germany for the first time, and was promoted to the largest economy in purchasing power GDP in Europe, with a total scale of $5.3 trillion.
However, according to the IMF's forecast of Russia's purchasing power GDP in 2023, the year-on-year decline is expected to reach $30 million, which will fall to about $5 trillion, and the ranking will fall to the sixth position in the world.
So far, Saudi Arabia has announced that it will reduce oil production by 100 barrels per day on the original basis, and Russia, also a big oil producer, can also profit from it, that is to say, if Russia follows up Saudi Arabia's production reduction policy, then international oil prices will undoubtedly rise. The ranking between Russia and Germany may then change again.
Even if not, the recent intensification of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, as a major oil producer, will also influence the trend of international oil prices, so in the next period of time, international oil prices have the opportunity to rise, and Russia also has the opportunity to surpass Germany again.